Modelling New Zealand road deaths to 2025
Keywords: Statistical, Epidemiology and Other Road Safety Research Methods, Road Safety Strategy, Policy Development and Implementation
Submission Date: 2019
New Zealand is developing an integrated road safety intervention logic model. This paper describes a core component of this wider strategic research: a baseline model that extrapolates New Zealand road deaths to 2025. The baseline will provide context to what the NZ Transport Agency is trying to achieve. Several time-series models were investigated; these produced a range of forecasts of road deaths in the New Zealand context. In the final modelling an Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and two differing autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models were developed. A preferred model was identified and used to forecast.